Eastleigh: everybody loses

Lots of feverish speculation around about what the Eastleigh by-election 'means' for 2015. So here's some more.

Nothing.

That's what this by-election result means for all the parties. Let's look at them one-by-one.

The Liberal Democrats.
It was their seat. The previous MP is probably going to prison for a serious criminal offence, and the campaign was conducted in the midst of a media frenzy about an obscure apparatchik's (alleged) disgusting treatment of women. Now they're going round saying that if they can win under those circumstances, they'll be fine in the 2015 election. I reckon this is nonsense. It was a straight fight between Lib Dems and the Tories: two hated government parties. Angry Tories have an easy protest vote in UKIP. The kind of Lib Dems in constituencies like Eastleigh wouldn't vote Labour as a protest because it would let the Tories in. I don't think this means that they'll be OK in constituencies up and down the country in 2015 - just that they may do better in straight Tory v Lib Dem marginals. Eastleigh was a safe Lib Dem seat which is now a marginal one: on this kind of 14% drop, all their marginals will vanish.

The Tories.
They ran a dreadful campaign, in which their candidate was a UKIP clone, kept away from public scrutiny after making offensive and outlandish statements. They may have learned that shifting to UKIP territory on Europe only helps UKIP, but I doubt it. They've learned that the Lib Dems are still preferably in many voters' eyes to the Conservatives, but that's probably about it. But this was a by-election: control of the government wasn't in doubt, and I think they can probably assume that many UKIP votes were cast safe in that knowledge. When it comes to electing a government, lots of UKIP supporters will vote Tory to keep out the Lib Dems and Labour. The core vote strategy won't get the Tories a majority, but I don't think the UKIP sky is falling on their heads. They thought it was, hence the campaign they ran – and look at the result.

Labour.
It's a long time since Eastleigh was Labour territory. Lots of Blairites and Tories will be attacking the current leadership for managing nothing more than a 0.2% increase in the vote. I'm more sanguine. A very short campaign doesn't give a new-look party time to persuade any electorate of anything. Labour just doesn't have a natural constituency in Eastleigh yet, and expectations of a surge of enthusiasm were ludicrous. The protest voters were rightwingers who were never going to put their crosses in the Labour box. I also think that the despite all the evils the Liberal Democrats have perpetuated through joining the coalition, voters would still rather see and Lib Dem winning than a Tory. Therefore I think some Labour supporters will have swallowed a mouthful of vomit and voted tactically for the Lib Dems.

I have no doubt that if a Labour MP went under a bus in the Northern heartlands, Lib Dem and Tory candidates polling 9% or whatever would be shrugging their shoulders and accepting it rather than beating themselves up for not pulling off a miracle.

UKIP.
No doubt they're on the rise, but I'm not convinced this is a breakthrough. For all the reasons delineated above, I think this is a protest vote which won't be replicated or bettered in general elections when the government of the country is at stake. The Tories will tack towards UKIP because the tiny rump Tory membership is overwhelmingly barking mad, and UKIP will continue to operate as an amusing, sometimes dangerous, ginger group. This was an election about disgust with the mainstream political parties and Farage capitalised on it, but it's a high water mark. I think UKIP will suck away some Tories and allow Lib Dem and Labour candidates to win marginals: the Tories will adopt a core vote strategy to counter that and we'll get used to coalition governments (because the Tory core vote isn't enough to win outright) and some UKIP voters will return to the Tories to keep Labour out.

Additionally, Farage's crew should expect more scrutiny in future. I was amused to see him blithely assert the general criminal tendencies of Romanians and Bulgarians yesterday: yet the UK locks up more people than Romania and Bulgaria, which suggests British people have a greater natural propensity to commit crime.

Even more interestingly, if UKIP was an independent country, it would far outstrip every other country on earth for its rate of imprisonment. Currently, the United States has a higher rate of incarceration than any other country on earth: 716 per 100,000. So 0.716% of Americans commit crimes so heinous that they go to prison. But what of UKIP? 10% of UKIP's MEPs went from Parliament to Prison (including Tom Wise the thief and Ashley Mote – ironically – the benefit fraudster: Nikki Sinclaire has been arrested for fraud so the stats might actually be heading upwards). If I were Romania and Bulgaria, I'd be banning UKIP members from entering the country for fear of a crime wave.

Expelled from Paradise

Has anyone looked at the gimmicky new police site that itemises crimes in your postcode, in this case, for December 2010? It made realise what I miss about the countryside I came from (of course there's plenty of crime there - domestic violence, subsidy fraud etc. etc., but it's all behind closed doors, and population is tiny):

All crime and ASB0
To show crimes of a specific type click on the links below. To view details of individual crimes click the markers on the map.
Burglary0
Anti-social behaviour0
Robbery0
Vehicle crime0
Violent crime0
Other crime0

Now let's compare it to where Vole lives now:

All crime and ASB547
To show crimes of a specific type click on the links below. To view details of individual crimes click the markers on the map.
Burglary46
Anti-social behaviour145
Robbery36
Vehicle crime38
Violent crime91
Other crime191

How many crimes outside my building? 

Crime type	Total
Anti-social behaviour	3
Burglary	3
Robbery	4
Other crime	2
Violent crime	2

Plus four in the alleyway behind. I'm guessing it's the fault of the bloody nightclubs opposite. None of it is me, by the way.

Simon Jenkins rips apart this gimmick here.

Preserve the Criminal

Some good news today. Despite the cynical lies of politicians intent on courting the Daily Mail vote (slogan: 'stay in your homes'), the latest crime statistics show another, massive fall - down by 9% again. Soon, criminals will be an endangered species! I disagreed with so much of what the Labour Party did, but this is an unambiguous success. 


Murders are down to 615 - still not far off two per day, but not bad for 60+ million people, quite a few of whom are mentally ill. By comparison, the US manages about 18,000 with a population of 260 million. 


The predictions were that the recession would make people turn to crime, but it hasn't (so far) happened. British people seem to be getting nicer!


What a shame then that the Prime Minister's been caught lying, and had to be told off by the UK Statistics authority. 

Sir Michael Scholar spoke out after Prime Minister David Cameron told MPs that violent and gun crime "nearly doubled" under Labour.

The head of the statistics watchdog said he stood by a previous ruling that the Tory accusation was based on an "impossible" comparison of data.

Sir Michael also said the accusations were "likely to damage public trust" in the figures and he urged MPs and others to "take account" of his concerns.

He said that, following a fresh examination of the statistics, his view was "unchanged" since he rebuked former shadow home secretary Chris Grayling over a similar Tory claim made earlier this year. 

What Tory Scum!

Cameron's lying scare tactics

What he's saying:

I think it is time to be honest about what has been happening in our country. There has always been violence. There has always been evil.

But there is something about the frequency of these crimes – the depravity of these crimes, that betrays a deep and fundamental problem in Britain today.

As I have argued for many years now, these acts of murder and abuse are just the most violent and horrific expressions of what I have called the broken society. I know I've been criticised for saying our society is broken and I know I will be again. But I am saying this as I see it.

What's actually true (from the Guardian's Reality Check):

The British Crime Survey, which is based on interviews with 40,000 people a year about their experience of crime, shows violent crime is down by 49% since 1995. The Cardiff University hospital data published last week also tracked a downward trend with a 15% fall in the number of people treated for wounds in A&E departments since 2001. This contrasts with the Conservative claim that violent crime has risen by 44% since 2002 based on an extrapolation of House of Commons library analysis of police recorded crime figures.

The fact that the murder rate in England and Wales is now the lowest for a decade at 651 murders in 2008/09 is a clear indication of the direction of the most serious violent crime. 

Why?
Nobody ever lost votes by frightening citizens and then promising 'more bobbies on the beat' and blaming an alienated underclass of feral benefit scroungers for the world's ills. What's interesting about the current figures is that crime has fallen substantially - usually it increases during recessions as desperate people commit crimes to survive. How Cameron can pay for more police and criminals is 'unclear' (by which I mean fantasy).

So remember: overall crime is hugely down over the past 13 years. Violent crime is hugely down too - across all ways to measure the statistics.

Heeee's back!

Hello. Did you enjoy the peace and quiet while I was away? A torrent of bloggable things occurred to me - my thoughts are pretty much permanently accompanied by the sound of imaginary keys clacking these days. This is not a good thing.

However - what a waste of time yesterday was. For the second time, the case was cancelled because the accused changed his mind at the last moment. The offence occurred over a year ago. He was convicted of some charges at the Magistrate's Court some time ago, and has been in prison ever since. Six months ago I dragged myself, via three buses, to Brierley Hill Crown Court for the big event - cancelled after 6 hours in a waiting room because he sacked his lawyers. Fair enough, that's his right. The state paid for his translator to come up from London and stay overnight, and for the victims' translator to do the same. Plus the cost of the lawyers and court officials. He was then given time to instruct new representatives, but apparently decided to defend himself.

Until yesterday afternoon, when he decided that he needed lawyers after all. So another hearing will happen in a few weeks to decide that, then there'll be another hearing several months later, after the new lawyers familiarise themselves with the case. Meanwhile, the victims must be losing all faith in the system and I wouldn't be surprised to find that they give up and go back to their home country, especially with the recession biting. The accused will then go free.

I feel a bit weird sounding so angry about this. I'm utterly lefty-liberal about the justice system. Basically I think it's all wrong. Except now. This guy is genuinely and seriously mentally and physically dangerous, as I found out in the simplest way possible. I want him locked up - perhaps in a secure mental institution, perhaps in prison (I don't know what his state is) - until he isn't dangerous any more. I want him to receive the best treatment in court and afterwards, to have the benefit of all his rights, but at the same time, I know he's utterly guilty because I was involved, and there's been no benefit to anyone of all these delays, including him.

Anyway, off to write my Othello lecture. Or rewrite it.

You have a day off, you lucky people

I'm appearing in court tomorrow. No, it's not the libel courts, nor have I been arraigned on some horrendous crime (stealing books, stalking people with hairstyles). I'm giving evidence - hopefully. This trial's been cancelled before, and it's dragged on for over a year now… getting more like Jarndyce v Jarndyce by the week.

I'll tell you all about it on my release. Return! I meant return!

Try to survive without me, and without speculating on what I've been up to.

Sophisticated media - same old users.

All hail Maxi Sopo, who updated his Facebook status to tell all his friends about his new home. As you do.

Unless, of course, you're a fugitive from justice, like Mr. Sopo. He'd skipped off to Mexico. One of his friends works for the US Department of Justice. Now he's back under lock and key.

Morning all! It's ten hours since I was last in the office, meaning that I spent much longer at work than at home over the last couple of days. I'm genuinely thinking about bringing a pillow in so I can nap under the desk. I tried that over the summer and it worked very well, apart from banging my head on the underside every time someone knocked on the door.

Yet more historical news

Despite the constant round of parties, tourism and fetes available to the Victorian middle and upper classes, life in the city was nasty, brutish and short, even for these delicate flowers, as Michel Faber's and Sarah Waters's books depict.

Yet the new science of detection was all the rage, and ex-coppers were available to hire, just like Hauk in the The Wire:

PRIVATE INQUIRY OFFICE, established 1852, Eldon-chambers, Devereux-court, Temple, under the direction of CHARLES FREDERICK FIELD, late chief inspector of the detective force of the metropolis. This office has had the conduct of some of the most remarkable cases of the day–namely the Smyth and Worcester forgeries, the Rugeley murders, horse poisonings, incendiary fires, &c. Agent for New York, Mr. G. Hays, Bank detective police.

Still, if you survive into comfortable middle age, you can indulge yourself:

SMALL YACHT, for £20, with sails complete, or with anchor, chain cable, dingy, sweeps, and all stores, £25. Apply to W. C., 51, King William-street, E. C.

MR. GLADSTONE.–A beautifully-executed PORTRAIT of the Right Hon. W. E. GLADSTONE, on toned paper, with a biography and a review of his recently published edition Homer, will be given with the CRITIC, weekly literary Journal of August 7. Price 4d., or 5d. stamped. A copy in return for 5 stamps. Office, 29, Essex-street, Strand.

PICTURES.–To collectors and Connoisseurs.–An original, by Berrittini ; one by Van Heemskerke–both on panel ; six others on canvas. The largest an Italian landscape, by Stuart, 3 ft. 10 in. The whole for immediate cash, £50 ; cost £400, On view, after 12 o'clock a.m., at 20 Queen-street, Camden-town.

That's enough for today. I'm off to celebrate Emma's birthday - say happy birthday everybody - then home to see the Aged Parents and all my happily married siblings for a couple of days, then it's the UK School Games for a week. I'll check in once a day probably, but will be spending most of my time making children happy and safe. And not in an Austrian fashion. I'm the Welfare Officer.

I ain't no suit-wearin' businessman like you... you know I'm just a gangsta I suppose...

Quote of the day, from the passionate, leftwing author of The Wire, to which I'm quite attached:

"It is possible," he has observed, "that a few thinking viewers, after experiencing a season or two of The Wire, might be inclined, the next time they hear some politician declaring that with more prison cells, more cops, more lawyers, and more mandatory sentences that the war on drugs is winnable, to say, aloud: 'You are hopelessly full of shit'."

I do worry a little about watching the show - it's pretty voyeuristic to watch the travails of a mostly-black city. From top to bottom, it depicts a capitalist dystopia in which life is cheap, getting paid is all that matters, and from which all oversight is absent. The newspaper jettisons standards and journalists at an appalling rate. The politicians are obsessed with their careers and kickbacks, whether they started idealistically or not. The legal system is politically compromised, and the police - some of whom are broken, others corrupt - care little for their citizens, with a few exceptions. The unions are mob-controlled, the schools act as mini-prisons for kids who really want to be earning on the corners, and the black men are determined to kill or be killed for money and prestige. Add the racial tensions and you have a recipe for disaster.

Yes, it's fiction, but it's based on long experience. The Tories are currently claiming that the UK is like The Wire, which is astonishingly irresponsible, and proof that they haven't actually watched it: the show's implied solutions are leftwing, calling for altruism, a strong and caring state and a sense of community. The Wire's problems, meanwhile, are those of Thatcherite capitalism, in which unbridled capitalism, the free market, privatisation, contempt for public services and 'there is no such thing as society' (Thatcher) feature prominently. Think about it: drugs are a selfish bit of indulgence. There's demand, and businessmen have spotted a gap in the market and behaved like good little capitalists by filling it. Legality, guns and the like don't matter - we've all been taught that profit is more important than morality or community. The dealers shouldn't be alienated: they're just further along the continuum that is us.

And so to bed

Well, not quite. But I am going home now. I only ordered one book today (Vince Cable's The Storm), received Season one of the original Star Trek (for work, of course) and received the news that I don't have to appear in court tomorrow. This is always good to hear - my reign of terror continues.

Actually, I don't have to give evidence in a case because the defence have accepted my statement without question. It's true: I did fly in from Krypton, land on the hoodlum's head, melt his knife with laser eyes then delivered him to the Chief of Police with a tortured pun (actually, that last bit's quite true to life). I still have to attend the crown court for the more serious charges so I'll still get to shout 'You want the truth? You can't handle the truth', though I've never seen the whole film because the sight of Tom Cruise makes me grind my teeth and be randomly cruel to babies.